New York Jets: 2016 Offseason Outlook – Cash Strapped

Photo Credit: Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Well, there is not much more to say than “same old Jets”. A label that was almost entirely removed by Todd Bowles’ record breaking 2015 squad, the New York Jets reverted back to a painful form of play all too familiar to fans in their season-ending Week 17 loss to the Buffalo Bills.

While this puts a dark stain on how the 2015 season will be remembered, it is important to look at the positives of this year’s Jets. Building on a mostly successful campaign is huge, and while re-singing key parts is critical, there is certainly room for improvement.

Keeping in mind that it was Bowles’ first year as the Jets coach, 10-6 is a great start for any new leader. Bowles stayed quiet about the team’s affairs and kept everybody, from players to fans, focused on winning. This was a breath of fresh air for Jets fans. These new Jets were likeable and never made bad headlines, a polar opposite of the Rex Ryan era.

One thing that can be said for sure is that hiring Bowles was a terrific move. He always had his team under total control. Unlike Rex, it was not ground-and-pound. Instead the offense adapted to its passing strength.

Had New York made the playoffs, Bowles certainly would have received hard looks for Coach of the Year. Brandon Marshall teared up Jets record books, setting new WR team highs for touchdowns, receptions, and yards. Fitzpatrick set a new QB touchdowns record with 31. But, despite a successful season, Jets fans and players alike left this year’s campaign yet again with a sour taste of what could have been.

Jets fans are sick of being almost there. They do not want small improvements. No more steps in the ‘right’ direction. This is a team thirsty to contend now, not in three years when there are no more steps to take except for that great leap. In a battered 2016 AFC playoff field, the team’s health might have taken them a long way.

Instead, our focus shifts to the offseason. It will be busy for the Jets, with 23 players hitting the market. Pro-Bowl DE Muhammad Wilkerson, DT Damon Harrison, and ILB Demario Davis are just three of many key names. There’s not enough money for everyone, so some sacrifices will have to be made by second season GM Mike Maccagnan.

Investigating the Jets’ 2015 salary cap situation, 24 percent of the team’s spending is consumed by aging but crucial parts in LT D’Brickishaw Ferguson, C Nick Mangold, and of course, Revis island isn’t a cheap vacation.

Some interesting names also appear in the top ten of the Jets 2015 spending, such as RT Breno Giacomini and the seemingly invisible Dee Milliner. Seems odd that amongst the Jets top areas for improvement is the right side of the offensive line, yet Giacomini earns a hefty $5,125,000. Not to mention, Milliner’s five games and one tackle came for a $3,453,010 bargain.

Other, more deserved, big cap hits came from Cromartie, rookie Leonard Williams, Eric Decker, and Marshall. While the aforementioned contracts all carry into 2016, the Jets are faced with tough decisions as they will need to pick who celebrates payday in New York. A team with just $3 million in cap space last year does not have much wiggle room heading into this offseason.

Photo Credit: nydailynews.com

When viewing key parts of the team, Muhammad Wilkerson tops the list of free agents. Although the Wilkerson will likely be franchise tagged, that only keeps him a Jet for one more year at $14.8 million. It has been repeatedly noted the the front office and Wilkerson’s camp are not close on a lengthy deal. The Jets using the tag on Wilkerson would be more of a short term idea, with the long term goal of working out an extension over the coming season.

However, moving across the defensive line, Damon Harrison is also considering hitting the open market. Harrison saying he wants to get paid like the best nose tackle in football is a big concern for the Jets. A fan favorite, Big Snacks could end up costing the Jets more acquisitions this offseason, but he should remain the team’s first priority. The defensive line was the strength of the team all year, and it would be sinful of Mike Maccagnan not to make a huge effort to keep it together.

Step one is placing the tag on Wilkerson, and step two is going all-in on Harrison.

Is it wrong to call Ryan Fitzpatrick, age 33, one of the breakout quarterbacks of 2015? While he may have at most three years left, or worst case scenario he is done now, Fitzpatrick had a terrific 2015 campaign. The team rallied around him to try to push the veteran journeyman into his first playoff birth. He also won the fans over, always showing grit, heart, and determination on the field. Fitz gave the fans everything he had, leaving them to wonder if there is any gas left in the Fitzmagic tank.

While there may not be much, and stellar play cannot always be expected, the answer is yes. While Jets fans may not want to acknowledge it, becoming a great team is a multi-year process and Fitzpatrick is the best bet at QB for the time being. Fitz can be used as a bridge, of sorts, to the future (whatever that may hold at the QB position). And besides, anything is better than Geno Smith. .

One casualty of the Jets cap situation could potentially be loyal Jet Demario Davis. The third round inside linebacker has been with the team for four full seasons, but may not see the offer he likes, or anything close to it from the Jets. Davis struggled to stick with Todd Bowles’ defenses which feature linebackers in coverage schemes. He continually looked slow in coverage throughout the season.

Photo Credit: Joe Camporeale – USA Today

The Jets also have solid backups at inside linebacker in Erin Henderson and Jamari Lattimore, who will both likely re-sign. David Harris will continue to man the middle of the 4-3 defense. Davis’s snap counts decreased throughout the season, dropping considerably from a 99% mark in 2014 to 80% of defensive snaps in 2015.

Whether the team is prepared to roll with Henderson and the always solid, but aging Harris, or test the rest of the ILB market is a question that will be answered by their handling of Davis.

If the team is willing to bring back a key piece like Davis or make room for a number of other players, it would not be surprising to see cornerback Antonio Cromartie lost via trade. New York, first in cornerback spending in the NFL yet 13th in pass defense, seems content on moving on from the veteran.

He takes up a large spot in any organization, especially for a fading athlete at 31 for a price of $8 million dollars. He the highest chance of being traded out of anyone on the Jets for cap reasons, according to spotrac.com. That number only seems larger as it dwarfs Damon Harrison’s expected asking price of $4.5 million.

Another potential move is to attempt to ship TE Jeff Cumberland out of New York. His five receptions came at the steep price of $1.9 million, but if he were to be traded, the Jets would not retain a penny.

Other probable courses of action include attempting to trade, or releasing players with big contracts but no potential and injury dominated years. Amongst that category is CB Antonio Allen and S Jaiquawn Jarrett (both making $1.542 million). Trade packages for such players would include little to no return, or late picks.

Finally, running backs Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell, and Stevan Ridley are all free agents. Powell is the one expected to return. It would probably not take much to resign Powell and Ridley, but the Jets seem content on potentially letting two or all three depart and possibly drafting a running back in the draft. That pick would be the gifted, but moody Ezekiel Elliot. Should he fall to the Jets, he would be hard to pass up.

As mentioned before, there is not much room in the Jets’ checkbooks. They glided through 2015 with only $3.1 million available. Space will be freed by the departure of some players making obscene amounts of money relative to their 2015 outputs, but it will be quickly gobbled up by key re-signings.

A positive is that they will travel into 2016 with significantly less dead cap money, just $500,000 as opposed to last seasons $8 million. That number can rise over the offseason.

So, moving into free agency, the Jets should have some room to work with. That being said, improvements are necessary, especially on the right side of the offensive line.

Ted Larsen 2015 cap hit:$2,435,000

Ramon Foster 2015 cap hit: $2,150,000

Brandon Brooks 2015 cap hit: $1,696,359

The acquisition of any of these guards would be an improvement over RG Brian Winters. Giacomini also did not have a strong year relative to his $5 million dollar price.

These guards would solidify an already strong offensive line, adding one more piece to a nearly complete Jets offense puzzle. While Winters is under contract for significantly less than any of the options listed below, and upgrade on the right side of the line is much needed.

Other free agency targets could include upgrades at linebacker and running back. Depending on Cromartie’s situation, cornerbacks may also bee a team need. Problems at linebacker will probably be resolved by the re-signing of Calvin Pace and a potential draftee. That leaves running back as a concern to be addressed in free agency, as a backfield featuring Bilal Powell and Zac Stacy is not exactly ideal.

The final question of the Jets offseason will be resolved on draft night in May.

Photo Credit: Brynn Anderson – Associated Press

20th overall is by no means a good pick in the first round of the draft, and when you miss the playoffs, it rubs salt in the wound. But, they can still find a key piece to the team, so this draft pick is crucial. It could become the last addition the team needs before they make a push for a Super Bowl.

They are projected to pick a variation of outside linebackers or speed back Ezekiel Elliot. Those picks hinge on what the Jets choose to do with their players at those spots in free agency. It is also not far-fetched to see them possibly picking an offensive linemen, depending on who is available.

The risky and possibly impossible pick: Notre Dame OLB Jaylon Smith. First thing’s first, Smith may not fall to the Jets. He also may slide past the Jets. Smith may not even declare as far as we know. To be concise, the freakish athlete’s NFL future is jeopardized to say the least.

Smith is the Jet’s perfect pick. Originally projected to be picked in the top ten or even five, Smith’s draft status is now in doubt because of bad tears in his ACL and MCL. This mirrors a situation similar to last year’s draft.

RB Todd Gurley tore his ACL in his final year at Georgia, and slid from the top three to tenth overall. The rest of the story has been told, and will likely culminate when Gurley takes home Offensive Rookie of the Year honors this February. Meanwhile Smith, described as a “LeBron James”- like athlete, won the Butkus award as college football’s top linebacker in 2015.

He would fit perfectly onto the edge of the Jets 4-3 formation alongside David Harris and a combination of Calvin Pace and Lorenzo Mauldin, and can slide into the middle at times. He is an outstanding athlete, coming in at 6-foot-2, 240 pounds and clocking a 4.67 40-yard dash.

He is versatile and demonstrated tremendous speed and power during his time at Notre Dame. Smith’s next few months are cloudy. He was projected to be picked very early but now could fall as late as 20th. If he slides and his recovery is anything like Todd Gurley’s, NFL GMs could wind up losing sleep over this one.

The safe and logical pick: Georgia OLB Leonard Floyd. Floyd is a monster. At 6-foot-4, 232 pounds, his lanky and agile frame makes him elusive to blockers. He is regarded as “surprisingly powerful” by CBS sports, and his raw talent makes him a surefire pick to develop in the NFL.

Playing in the SEC, there is no second-guessing if his athletic ability will translate well to the NFL.  Floyd could become a prolific edge pass rusher and tackler that will terrorize defenses for years to come under the coaching of Todd Bowles.

The Jets offseason will be busy. 23 free agents is no small task for Mike Maccagnan and co. Tough decisions concerning Demario Davis, Antonio Cromartie, the offensive line, and the draft will all receive mixed emotions no matter how they are handled.

In the end, it boils down to the fact that the Jets have a lot of wasted cap money. Contracts such as Dee Milliner, Antonio Allen, Jaiquawn Jarrett, and Jeff Cumberland all take up significant space. The handling of Cromartie’s $8 million will dictate a lot of what the Jets can accomplish.

Looking back at 2015.

My Jets Awards:

Photo Credit: Al Bello/Getty Images

Team MVP and OPOY: Brandon Marshall (Jets single season records: 1502 yards, 14 TD, 109 receptions)

DPOY: Muhammad Wilkerson (64 TOT, 12 sacks, two forced fumbles, seven passes defended(!))

ROY: Leonard Williams (63 TOT, three sacks)

Comeback Player: Erin Henderson – Henderson entered the season with a minimum one-year NFL contract, no guaranteed spot on the roster, and had taken a year off from football due to his recovery from a his drinking problem. Now entering the offseason, Henderson is likely to return and potentially start on Todd Bowles’ defense. The ex-Viking has repeatedly spoken about how fortunate he is to say that he is a Jet and that the organization took a chance on him. Henderson is the Jets’ Comeback Player of the Year, and is back up on his feet.

The offseason will be long and challenging, but you can bet that the Jets will come back with a vengeance in 2016.

As Bowles said in his final post game press conference of the season, “Every loss stings. It stings because it’s the last loss.”

All stats courtesy of ESPN and profootballreference.com, and snap counts from sportingcharts.com. Salary cap info via spotrac.com